Strasburgh Is A Star (But He’ll End Up Being A Bust)

Before I begin I am sorry I have not posted in a while. I actually had to spend a few nights in the hospital but I am not going to make everyone bored. I am doing fine now though.
While I was in the hospital though I was bored so I started following the draft on my laptop (they did not have MLB Network) I literally started reading up about players an hour and a half before the draft started. So even though I am not the most knowledgeable person about the draft here are my predictions for every ten picks if that makes since for the first round.
Picks 1-10
Biggest Star- Stephen Strasburgh 
San Diego: How long will Stephen Strasburg toil in the minors? (photo by Don Kohlbauer)
Here is an obvious pick. How many other college kids can throw 103 MPH? He pitched a no-hitter with San Diego state and went thirteen and one with 195 strikeouts! The Nationals though should not rush him and if they do sign him witch I believe they will for maybe twenty million for two years, thirty million for three years, etc. 
Anyway he also has a good change up that has gone unnoticed because of his fastball but his slider could use a little work. He needs a second strikeout pitch maybe some kind of breaking ball or maybe even something kind of rare like a forkball or something crazy. Other wise he looks good.
I though do not think he will become a star but he has the highest chance. I think some injury will happen and that will ruin his career. I think he might win a Rookie of the Year award but I think his career will be like the late Mark Fidrych who won the Rookie of the Year award and then had injuries derail his career.
Biggest Bust- Stephen Strasburgh
Yep the “best guy in the draft” could also be the biggest bust in the whole draft. Strasburgh throws 103 and his arm is still growing or developing or whatever you want to call it. Some people say he could throw up to 105 MPH, meaning he would be more likely to throw out his arm or hurt it. Also because he really only has one great pitch when he does not throw a fastball players might well hit it.
Obviously the money is another issue. What if say Starsburgh gets all hyped up because of the money and he does not practice as much or whatever. Another thing that concerns me a little is his past heath problems. When he first started baseball at San Diego State he was over weight and would throw up after doing laps and got tired after doing warmups. What if the money goes to his head and all that happens again? 
Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson, Steve Carlton, Tom Seaver, Gaylord Perry, and Greg Maddux where all not number one picks. David Clyde, Floyd Bannister, Mike Moore, Tim Belcher, Andy Benes, Ben McDonald, Brien Taylor, Paul Wilson, Kris Benson, Matt Anderson, Bryan Bullington, Luke Hochevar, and David Price along with Starsburgh where all pitchers and number one picks. How many of them have you heard of? One? Two? Three? Four? For me it is five but that does not matter. History is not on Strasburgh’s side and neither is it on David Price’s but sometimes history does not mater. Maybe they can change that.
Biggest Dark-Horse – Mike Minor
Minor does not have the 103 MPH fastball like Starsburgh and he does not have the “wow factor” like former teammate David Price but this kid is good and over looked. His fastball tops out at 93 MPH but most of the time is around 90 MPH. His slider is pretty good with a hard bite and is the better of his two breaking pitches. His curve ball needs work but has potential. His change up is very good but according to scouts he does not throw it enough. 
Minor mixes his speed and location witch is why he struck out 114 and but just went six and six with an ERA of 3.90. Minor went seventh in the draft to the Braves and has many comparing him to Greg Maddux whose fastball touched 93 MPH like Minor. Maddux obviously is one of the greatest pitches of all time and for the record he went to the Cubs with the 31st pick which was in the second round then, sixteen picks before teammate Tom Glavine.
Minor pitches like a “crafty veteran”
even though he is only 21. He could easily be called up next year but I think he will join the rotation in 2011. All he needs to work on his his curveball. Young pitches sometimes work on their fastball to much but Minor seems like he knows baseball. This kid is going to be even better then Steven Strasburgh.
Picks 11-20

Biggest Star- Aaron Crow
Missouri Tigers pitcher Aaron Crow throws against Baylor Friday, March 22 at Taylor Stadium in Columbia, Mo. The Tigers won 7-0. The junior right-hander from Wakarusa, Kan. , will take a scoreless streak of 42 2-3 innings into his next start Friday against Texas. For the season, Crow is 7-0 with a minuscule 0.69 ERA.
Here was a though pick. Three other players could have been here but I picked Crow. Many people thought he would be picked earlier in the draft after being picked ninth in the draft by the Nationals last year. However he dropped to the 12th spot. The Royals though could not be happier. Yet signing him is the problem. Last year he did not sign with the Nationals because of signing issues. However Crow is from Kansas and I think he is more eager to get to the majors now and I think he will sign with Kansas City.
He has a fastball in the low to mid 90’s. That has some sink. his slider is his best pitch but  does not have anything special like amazing break or speed. His change up is about an average MLB change up and needs some work. He has a chance to have three good pitches but his change up needs work.
Crow made a bad career choice not signing with the Nationals because after playing with the Fort Worth Cats many forgot about him and he is now trying to make a name for him self. While with the Cats he has started to nip at the strike zone more and instead of going right after hitters. Which is what he needs to do to get better.
Biggest Bust- Tyler Matzek
Matzek may be the best lefty in the draft but he is to inconsistent. When he is on his is great when he is off he is below average. He is a high school kid so like all high school kids their are questions about his arm, stamina, etc. His slider has some hard bite but not a lot. His curve is average but he needs to work on keeping the velocity down when he throws that. He threw a few change ups but does not really have a good feel for it.
He has some issues when it comes to signing him but noting major. People have compared him to Curt Schilling and Cole Hamels but he is no Curt or Cole. He overthrows at times which he needs to cut down and will help with him being inconsistent. Another thing is that his fastball reaches 94 from the windup but just 88 from the stretch. 
I doubt Matzek will get hurt ruining his career or anything but he does not have that “wow factor” I guess his poise might be his “wow factor” but he simply does not have the velocity and does not really mix his speeds and locations. I just do not see him having that year where everything goes right or whatever. I really do not know how this guy went so high in the draft. I see him as a pick in the 20’s. Maybe he turns out to be a Curt Schilling or Cole Hamels but I just do not see it.
Biggest Dark-Horse- Alex White

White could have gone in the top ten if he did not go to college but I think most players think they s
hould go to college before the start their baseball career because well as my dad says, “you have to have a back up career.” Anyway White’s fastball gets in the low 90’s but tops out at 95 and has some hard sink. His curveball needs some work to say the least. But his slider is pretty good. It stays around at 80-85 MPH. He does not throw his change up that much but it is pretty average.
Many could say that White should have been taken farther in the draft or that the Indians made a mistake or whatever but with the fifteenth pick he was a steal. His command needs some work but is above average. His poise is fine but nothing to brag about. White though just has a baseball mind and mixes speeds and locations. Some say he could be up in the Indian’s bullpen this year. Yet if that happens the Indians made a mistake. They can not rush this kid.
His mechanics could be tweaked a little and that would probably help his control. In 2010 I bet he works out of the bullpen and then after his curveball and change up are good but him in the rotation. He projects as a solid number two starter but this kid is going to be an ace. He is not going to win 300 games or strikeout 3,000 but he will be a guy you will remember for a long time.
Picks 21-32

Biggest Star- Jiovanni Mier


Mier has already been compared Nomar Garciaparra. He does not have anything that stands out to much like a ton of power or speed because Mier is one of the most balanced players I have ever seen. He could be a good number two hitter for the Astors and with Miguel Tejada getting kind of old ( 35 years old) he would be a very good fit for the Astors. He is not going to be a guy who makes the majors in a year but more like two to four years.
Like mentioned before Mier has good contact and if he got a little stronger could hit twenty home runs a season but that is a stretch. He has average to below average speed but could steal ten bases a year. His fielding ability is getting better and in three years could be a Dustin Pedroia type fielder and hitter just at shortstop. There is a small chance though that Mier could move over to second but I doubt it.
Mier is a guy who can hit .300 every year. He needs to work on his fielding ability though if he wants to be a major league player along with his batters eye which is below average also. From what I know though Mier loves baseball and would do anything to play in the majors so the odds are he will. Here is a guy that I wish the Red Sox drafted even though we already have Jed Lowrie. Knowing how G.M. Ed Wade rolls trading him Mier is not out of the options because Wade likes to win and he likes to win now. But I am getting off topic. The bottom line is Mier could get 3,000 hits by the time is done.
Biggest Bust- No One
There are a few guys here who have a chance to be a bust yet I do not think anyone will. Maybe Michael Trout a center fielder out of high school who the Angels took with the 25th pick. Or Eric Arnett a big righty that the Brewers took with the 26th pick from Indiana University. 
Maybe even the 27th, 28th, or 29th picks. The Mariners took Nicholas Franklin a shortstop out of high school. The Red Sox took Reymond Fuentes with the 28th pick. Fuentes is a center fielder out of high school from Puerto Rico. Fuentes is Carlos Beltran’s cousin which might but some pressure on him. The Yankees (who we are 8-0 against) took Zachary Heathcott, a high school center fielder from Texas.
No one really stands out as a bust and part of it might be because of them being later in the first round but if I had to say one person it would be Reymond Fuentes.
Biggest Dark-Horse – Every one
Everyone is a dark-horse and everyone can make it to the majors. Even though they where picked in the first round they where picked towards the end. I would say though LeVon Washington, the 30th pick in the draft by the Rays. LeVon is a five star prospect and could be a franchise player at second base. Other wise though everyone is a dark horse. 
And Mr. Epstein this is for you but can you please call up Clay!
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And seriously vote for Andre Ethier I mean this guy had walk off hits on back to back nights and has already hit eleven home runs and his career high is twenty. He also has four multi home run games this year. You don’t have to vote 25 times for him just as many as you want/can!
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  1. doublej11

    Your prediction about Tyler Matzek must be based on an old scouting report because he was hitting 96-97mph quite often in his last 7 starts. Stamina isn’t an issue and never has been, he’s shown this by throwing just as hard in the 7th inning as he was in the first. In his last 3 starts during the playoffs (that lead to a state championship in what is arguably the most competitive and talented league in the nation) he had a 0.00 ERA. If he’s your bust pick then I’d advice you not to wager on it.

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